Bitcoin Price Breaks 100 SMA: Here’s Why It Could Rally 5%-10%

Bitcoin price remained well bid above $11,400 and it broke the key $11,600 barrier against the US Dollar. BTC is now trading above the 100 hourly SMA and it could continue to grind higher.

  • Bitcoin is back in a positive zone above the $11,500 and $11,600 resistance levels.
  • The price settled nicely above the 100 hourly SMA, opening the doors for a push to $12,000.
  • There was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance near $11,560 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken).
  • The pair could gain 5%-10% as long as it is above the 100 hourly simple moving average.

Bitcoin Price is Gaining Momentum

Yesterday, we discussed the importance of the 100 hourly simple moving average and $11,600 for the next bitcoin rally against the US Dollar. BTC remained well bid above the $11,400 level and it managed to settle above $11,500.

As a result, there was a crucial upside break above the $11,600 resistance and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There was also a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance near $11,560 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair.

The pair even climbed above the $11,800 level and traded as high as $11,852. It is currently correcting gains and trading below $11,800. Bitcoin tested the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent upward move from the $11,272 low to $11,852 high.

Bitcoin price trades above $11,650. Source: TradingView.com

On the downside, there is a strong support forming near the $11,650 level and the 100 hourly SMA. The next major support is near the $11,550 level or the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent upward move from the $11,272 low to $11,852 high.

On the upside, there is a short-term resistance near the $11,850 level. A successful close above the $11,850 level might open the doors for a push towards $12,000 or even $12,200 in the near term.

Another Failure in BTC?

If bitcoin fails to clear the $11,850 resistance or the $12,000 barrier, there could be a downside correction. The main support is now forming near the $11,550 level.

If there is a downside break below the $11,550 support, the price could extend its decline towards the $11,200 support zone.

Technical indicators:

Hourly MACD – The MACD is slowly gaining pace in the bullish zone.

Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now back above the 50 level.

Major Support Levels – $11,650, followed by $11,550.

Major Resistance Levels – $11,850, $12,000 and $12,200.

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