Bitcoin recovers from decline after ETF approval, and there are concerns about the CPI on the 13th | Bitbank Analyst Contribution

Bitcoin plunges as discussions on mitigation reduction proceed and material

Virtual currency market prices this week from February 3rd (Sat) to February 9th (Fri)

Mr. Hasegawa, an analyst at Bitbank, a major domestic exchange, illustrates this week’s Bitcoin chart and deciphers the future outlook.


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table of contents
  1. Bitcoin on-chain data
  2. bitbank contribution

Bitcoin on-chain data

Number of BTC transactions

Number of BTC transactions (monthly)

Number of active addresses

Number of active addresses (monthly)

BTC mining pool remittance destination

Exchange/Other services

bitbank analyst analysis (contributed by Tomoya Hasegawa)

Weekly report from 2/3 (Sat) to 2/9 (Fri):

This week’s Bitcoin (BTC) vs. yen price has been steadily trending since the middle of the week, touching 6.9 million yen for the first time in a month.

At the beginning of the week, BTC became firmer due to El Salvador’s President Bukele’s re-election and the rebound in CME’s BTC futures, which started with a gap down, rebounding from around 6.3 million yen and recovering to the 6.4 million yen level.

However, on the same day, the American Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released a non-manufacturing industry trend report for January, which showed that the PMI, employment and inflation indicators exceeded market expectations, and by US time the gains had disappeared. .

After that, the market continued to tussle in the 6.3 million yen range, but from the middle of the week, it rose as the ETH price rose after passing the Denkun upgrade on the Horesky testnet, and BTC rose to 6.5 million yen on the 7th. Restore the yen.

As a result, the market completed a double bottom in a short period of time, and continued to trend steadily on the following day, the 8th. On this day, BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) exceeded the trading value of Grayscale’s ETF (GBTC), which was also well-received, and BTC in the US also showed a steady trend, with 6.8 million yen in Tokyo time on the 9th. has succeeded in surpassing the top.

btcjpy hourly chart 61

[Figure 1: BTC vs. Yen chart (1 hour)]
Source: Created from bitbank.cc

As of the closing price on the 8th, BTC is denominated in yen, and the decline that occurred immediately after the start of trading of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States has been erased.

On the other hand, dollar-denominated BTC is slightly below the same level. This week, the break above the neckline of the short-term double bottom and the improvement of the three roles in Ichimoku Kinko Hyo suggest that BTC is in a strong position, and on the 9th, Tokyo time, the BTC dollar successfully rose to the 46,000 yen level.

However, $46,500 is the level just before ETF trading began in dollar terms, and it is pointed out that this is a level where reversal selling is likely to occur.

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In addition, the release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January is scheduled for next week on the 13th, and it has been pointed out that attention should be paid to selling pressure due to position adjustment in the near term.Although the market has momentum, BTC is in a deep tailspin. It can be said that it has returned to a level that is at a critical level.

btcusd daily ichimoku

[Figure 2: BTC dollar Ichimoku balance chart (daily)]
Source: Created from Glassnode

Now, the market expects that the US CPI on the 13th will be flat (3.4%) compared to the previous year from December, but recent US economic indicators have been outperforming market expectations one after another, so caution is advised. It takes.

In particular, in December, the energy index rose significantly from -2.3% to +0.4% in December, but crude oil prices remained steady in January, so we need to be careful about any upward swings in the overall CPI. .

Despite several Fed officials expressing caution about lowering interest rates this week, the U.S. stock market appears not to be listening to the Fed, rallying on strong corporate performance. It has been pointed out that this market attitude may change drastically next week due to the CPI, and there is also a possibility that BTC will enter an adjustment soon.

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Contributor: Tomoya HasegawaYuya Hasegawa

After graduating from a British graduate school, he worked as an analyst for the FinTech industry and virtual currency market at a venture company made up of people from financial institutions. Since 2019, he has been a market analyst at BitBank Co., Ltd. He has provided comments to major domestic financial media and has contributed to many overseas media.

connection:bitbank_markets official website

Previous report:Bitcoin has fallen below the 6 million yen level, wary of further depreciation

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