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Bitcoin still seems bullish, despite everything

According to what was stated by CryptoQuant, the trend of Bitcoin’s price remains bullish, despite everything. 

For the same reasons, Ethereum also appears to be still bullish. 

The accumulation of Bitcoin: latest bullish signal

Everything starts from an analysis of the so-called accumulation addresses. 

In the world of finance, the terms “bull” and “bear” are often used to describe market trends. A “bull” market is characterized by rising prices, while a “bear” market is marked by falling prices. Understanding these concepts is crucial for investors.

CryptoQuant publishes several charts on the trend of Bitcoin, and one of these is precisely the chart called “BTC Accumulation Addresses“.

This is a chart produced by the user Crazzyblockk that shows the BTC accumulated by a set of public addresses. 

Focusing particularly on what has happened in the last month, Crazzyblockk points out that there has been a small surge in the growth of accumulation addresses for Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Considering the current trend of demand in the crypto market, and examining the accumulation addresses of BTC and ETH, it would be evident that in the last month there has been a significant increase in the number of new accumulation addresses.

All this despite prices remaining substantially stable, with relatively modest growth compared to that of previous months,

According to Crazzyblockk, this phenomenon would indicate that investor sentiment on Bitcoin and Ethereum is still remaining bullish, even in a period of price stability, because more and more investors would be eager to join the ranks of BTC and ETH holders. 

The whales

In financial markets, it is always necessary to distinguish the behavior of small retail investors from that of the large whales, who are often institutional investors, even though in the crypto markets there are also rare retail whales.

Investors – and especially speculators – retail tend to be driven by emotions, and therefore buy mainly when the sentiment is clearly positive, while they tend to sell when it is negative. 

The whales, on the other hand, are rarely influenced by emotions and behave differently. They often do nothing when there is too much emotion in the markets, preferring a more rational and considered approach. 

The price of Bitcoin has been moving sideways for two weeks now in a range between $67,000 and $70,000, making it clear that this is a very low-emotion moment for the crypto markets.

Precisely for this reason, it could instead be a good time for the whales, who in a framework of relative stability have more time to analyze the situation and carefully consider their choices. 

According to what the CryptoQuant chart reveals, it would be a period of accumulation, in which the more rational investors are trying to purchase BTC and ETH in anticipation of future increases. 

The retail

The interest of retail in Bitcoin is instead at the lowest of 2024, as demonstrated by the chart of searches for the word Bitcoin on Google in the last 90 days globally.

Therefore, it is extremely unlikely that retail investors are accumulating at this moment, also because their cumulative purchasing power does not appear to be particularly significant in times when interest is low. 

It is worth noting that at the end of April, when the price of BTC dropped below $57,000 for a brief moment, it was precisely substantial purchases that prevented a further decline. At the time, many expected a drop even below $53,000, but those substantial purchases prevented the further price decline.

It is very likely that the retail, driven by fear, sold en masse between April 12 and May 1, and at that point more rational investors may have stepped in who, putting aside emotions like fear, instead rationalized the situation and considered that a good moment to buy. 

In fact, the sharp decline in general interest in Bitcoin began on April 21, after the bulk of the fear had subsided. 

The fact that since May 2nd there has been a rebound in the price of Bitcoin, without the interest of retail growing, indicates that after selling in April, retail might be ready to buy again, in case of a return of enthusiasm. 

The wall at $70,000: Is Bitcoin still bullish?

Yesterday the price of Bitcoin tried to surpass $70,000, but it was literally pushed down, even if only slightly. 

The fact is that, as highlighted by the analysts at Bitfinex, since mid-March there are several long-term BTC holders who are taking advantage of the high prices to take profit.

The psychological threshold of 70,000$ seems to be perfect for triggering the desire to take profit, from those who have acquired Bitcoin at significantly lower costs. 

The thing seems to clash with Crazzyblockk’s revelation that this is a period of accumulation, but in reality, the two visions are perfectly complementary. 

In fact, those who are accumulating are those who have not yet put BTC in their portfolio, or who have put too few, in their view, while those who are taking profit are those who have already amply accumulated in the past at much lower costs. 

It should not be forgotten that the historical peak price of Bitcoin before 2024 was precisely the current 69,000, so over 70,000$ all those who bought before March 2024 are in profit. 

At the moment when these profit-taking activities should stop, and given that accumulation seems to be continuing even with BTC at $69,000, the hypothesis that the bullrun might resume sooner or later must be considered absolutely possible.