At the APEX 2025 developer summit, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse stated that XRP could facilitate up to 14% of SWIFT’s total volume within five years. With the global interbank messaging network handling over $30 trillion in annual cross-border transactions, such a goal implies a dramatic expansion in XRP’s utility.
While some dismissed the claim as aspirational, the post-event analysis has introduced rigorous, data-driven models suggesting XRP could fulfill that role under the right conditions.
Conservative Liquidity Calculations
Crypto expert and commentator Crypto Eri (@sentosumosaba) offered a grounded view of how much XRP would be needed to handle a $4.2 trillion annual volume, representing just a fraction of SWIFT’s total, under conservative assumptions.
Based on a token price of $2.15 and an average transaction cycle of three minutes for liquidity management, the calculation estimates that 11.15 million XRP could facilitate that volume, amounting to only 0.0190% of the 58.82 billion circulating supply.
The key factor underpinning this conclusion is high token velocity. If each XRP is reused every three minutes, that enables up to 480 bridge transactions per day per token.
On a VERY CONSERVATIVE calculation, 11.15 million XRP (at $2.15) is needed to facilitate $4.2 trillion annually. That is approximately 0.0190% of the circulating supply of 58.82 billion. The exact number depends on real-world velocity & liquidity. We know the settlement times… https://t.co/ZDtHHV2WMZ pic.twitter.com/QZohB8CGIX
— Crypto Eri ~ Carpe Diem (@sentosumosaba) June 14, 2025
The Critical Role of Velocity in XRP Valuation
However, this high-frequency assumption is theoretical and rarely mirrored in actual market conditions. Another contributor, responding to Eri’s model, elaborated on the practical realities of using XRP as a bridge asset. If liquidity recycles more slowly, for instance, at 100 or even 50 transactions per day, the price of the asset must increase significantly to maintain the same transaction capacity.
We are on X, follow us to connect with us :- @TimesTabloid1
— TimesTabloid (@TimesTabloid1) June 15, 2025
The example given shows that at only 50 transactions per day, XRP would need to be priced at approximately $20.64 to handle the same $4.2 trillion throughput. At 10 daily transactions, the price would have to hit $103.20. This shift shows how reduced velocity increases demand per token, exerting upward pressure on price.
Some experts believe the pressure from this volume could push the asset even higher, with one expert recently suggesting a potential 16,400% surge to $357 is conservative.
Can XRP Handle This Volume?
XRP settles in 3 to 5 seconds, but real-world frictions, such as uneven transaction flow, regulatory delays, and fiat off-ramps, limit effective reuse, forcing liquidity providers to hold extra XRP and reducing practical turnover despite automation.
However, XRP is still significantly faster than SWIFT and similar legacy systems, leading to louder calls for the adoption of the digital asset as a SWIFT replacement. If XRP is to support a sizable share of global payment volume, the required price depends less on how quickly and efficiently each token can be cycled through the system.
Disclaimer: This content is meant to inform and should not be considered financial advice. The views expressed in this article may include the author’s personal opinions and do not represent BitcoinLinux’s opinion. Readers are advised to conduct thorough research before making any investment decisions. Any action taken by the reader is strictly at their own risk. BitcoinLinux is not responsible for any financial losses.
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The post Can XRP Handle 14% of SWIFT Volume? Experts Break Down the Math appeared first on BitcoinLinux.
