Interviewed RBC-Kritpo analysts told what events and factors affect the price of the leading digital asset and what dynamics can be expected from it this month.
“The goal remains the same”
Cryptocurrency Market Analyst Viktor Pershikov
“Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies do not historically support the trend in the classic markets called sell in may and go away (“sell in May and forget”). Just four times in the past ten years, Bitcoin has fallen in May, with the average drop lower than the rise in May of other years. This suggests that it is not statistically correct to expect cryptocurrency prices to fall in May, but this does not mean that the market cannot decline.
At the beginning of the month, we are waiting for the Fed meeting, which will decide on the interest rate and further steps to change the monetary policy (MPT). Market expectations call for another rise of 0.25% and a pause in rate hikes in the future.
Some analysts believe that the Fed may start easing the monetary policy, especially in view of recession risks and developing problems in the banking sector. At the same time, if, following the results of the Fed meeting on May 3, the Open Market Committee does not indicate the prospect of moving towards a weakening of the monetary policy, this will create pressure on both the stock markets and the cryptocurrency market.
I do not expect a significant increase in the price of crypto assets in May and continue to look for major bull events in the crypto market in the third and fourth quarters of this year. The ideal scenario in May would be a correction of bitcoin to the level of $25 thousand, which would make it possible to enter the market at favorable prices in anticipation of further growth. At the same time, the goal for this year at $40,000 and $45,000 remains unchanged for me.”
“Fed’s plans may give signals to investors”
Financial Analyst BitRiver Vladislav Antonov
“The cryptocurrency market continues to be influenced by the dynamics of US stock indices, the dollar index, the actions of the US Federal Reserve, as well as news on the US national debt ceiling.
The amount of US public debt has already reached too large an amount, and the issue of its repayment is becoming more and more urgent. This could lead to a change in US economic policy, including the Fed’s monetary policy.
The Fed meeting could be a key moment for the cryptocurrency market, as Jerome Powell’s speech will affect both the dollar and the demand for cryptocurrencies. The increase in rates, which is quite likely during the meeting, has already been taken into account by the market. But the Fed’s future plans may give new signals to investors. The trading price regime can be adjusted after Powell’s speech and an assessment of the latest news on US GDP and public debt in order to take into account changes in economic policy and make a decision to buy or sell cryptocurrencies.
According to the latest data from CME Group, the probability of a rate hike to 5.25% at the May meeting is 82.8%. On April 27, the Bureau of Economic Analysis of the US Department of Commerce released data on GDP. In the first quarter, the US economy grew by 1.1% year on year against the previous value of 2.6%. Economists had expected growth of 2.0%. Economic cuts could change Jerome Powell’s rhetoric, and the Fed will end its cycle of rate hikes at its June 14 meeting to stave off a recession.
The BTC/USD pair is trading at $29,000. A trading price range of $26.5–31,000 can be predicted for May. I believe that the price will remain in the specified range not only before the US Federal Reserve meeting, but also for some time and will leave it after June 1, 2023. If suddenly the news background develops in such a way that buyers can pass the $31,000 level, then a $35,000 level will appear on the horizon. A price drop below $26,500 will lead to a weakening of bitcoin to $25,000.”
“In the near future will grow”
Head of Analytical Department AMarkets Artem Deev
“The price of bitcoin depends on supply and demand, and these two factors are directly tied to fluctuations in the market for traditional assets. In other words, when the markets for currencies, hydrocarbons, metals, securities, and others begin to collapse, the demand for cryptocurrency increases exponentially. Since it, as an alternative asset, allows investors to protect their investments. The same thing happens with a serious change in the agenda of the regulators of individual states, since bitcoin allows you to make assets untraceable.
Traditionally, the exchange rate of bitcoin is affected by changes in the US Federal Reserve System rate, seasonality (cryptocurrency rises in price by the Christmas holidays), halving (a rather important indicator of cyclicality: about a year after each halving, bitcoin updates the maximum) and, of course, tightening regulation of the crypto industry.
Given the turbulence in the oil and gas markets, as well as the crisis in the US banking system, I think that bitcoin will grow in the near future. Now it costs $29,000. I believe that by May 1, the rate will cross the $30,000 mark and continue to grow at least until mid-May. I think that in the first half of May we may well see a local maximum of $33.7 thousand.”
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