A Rally Could Come First — Then the Real Test
Colin expects Bitcoin to stage a sizable move upward next, arguing that conditions for a “big bounce” are building. If that happens, altcoins are likely to outperform Bitcoin on percentage terms, potentially triggering short-term excitement across the market.
But the key question is what the bounce represents. A powerful rally could either:
- mark the start of a new push toward fresh all-time highs, or
- serve as a temporary rebound inside a broader downtrend.
Colin notes that both outcomes are plausible at this stage.
Portfolio Positioning Signals Caution
The analyst shared that he is maintaining an extremely defensive allocation — with 96% of his portfolio tied to Bitcoin. He said this is not because he dislikes altcoins, but because if the market enters a deeper downturn, alternative assets consistently fall much harder than BTC.
In his view, holding a Bitcoin-heavy portfolio offers better protection against uncertainty while still allowing exposure to upside if a breakout occurs.
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A Rare Secondary Scenario
While not his base prediction, Colin does entertain the possibility of a short “mini bear market.” In this version of events, Bitcoin would:
- decline further, but not crash like in previous cycles
- bottom out sooner than expected
- begin a new multi-year rally alongside broader economic expansions in 2026
He assigns this scenario a low probability — around 15%.
No Signs of Cycle Exhaustion Yet
Despite recent selling, Colin does not believe Bitcoin has entered the “overheated mania” phase that typically precedes long-term tops. For that reason, he says the macro cycle is not necessarily finished — but the next bounce will reveal whether bulls still control the narrative.
The information provided in this article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. BitcoinLinux.com does not endorse or recommend any specific investment strategy or cryptocurrency. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
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