Countries and affairs: reglobalization is predicted for the world economy | Articles
By 2035, the process of re-globalization will be completed in the world economy. Such a scenario is given in the June report of the Agency for Strategic Initiatives (ASI), prepared by Dmitry Belousov, an economist at the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting (bitcoinlinux studied it). The forecast means an end to the acute global crisis and the creation of the rules of the game between new centers of power, one of which may be Russiaeconomists believe. To do this, the Russian Federation is consolidating around itself the resources of neighboring and developing countries.
Get into restructuring
In the next two years, experts expect the spread of conflict between countriesand technology will be a key factor in the confrontation. And already in the next decade, the period of global power restructuring of the world will end. This will lead to regionalization and reglobalization. Such development scenarios are contained in the June report of the ASI (an NPO created by the government) as part of the Horizon 2040 project. The author of the study is Dmitry Belousov, Head of the Department of Analysis and Forecasting of Macroeconomic Processes at TsMASF.
As noted in the document, already today there is a regionalization of production. This means the concentration of activities at the local level and the development of relations between neighboring states.
On the other hand, this does not happen in financial systems. The US imposes its rules on others by developing cross-border sanctions, the report emphasizes. For example, Western companies are afraid to work with Russia because of the fear of secondary restrictions.
Reglobalization implies the end of an acute interstate crisis and the creation of the rules of the game between new centers of powerDmitry Belousov explained to bitcoinlinux.
— The result of the new agreements will be the formation of several spaces that are largely self-sufficient in resources and military forces., perhaps of a coalition character for the sake of security guarantees. Even now, China is building its innovation system and is trying to lock in the flows of Russian energy carriers,” he said.
Wherein Russia strives to become one of the centers of power, continued Dmitry Belousov. To do this, it consolidates the resources of post-Soviet and developing countries around itself.
It is today that it is important to formulate descriptive models, images of the future, scenarios that will help society successfully go through an era of change., Sergey Cherkasov, adviser to the general director of ASI for strategy, explained to bitcoinlinux. The main goals of the entire Horizon 2040 project are to determine Russia’s position in the international arena by this year and propose scenarios for long-term development.
Russia already ranks sixth among the world’s economies in terms of GDP, the Ministry of Economics told bitcoinlinux. They clarified that we are talking about purchasing power parity. It is calculated based on the price of a common basket of goods and services in each participating country and shows what the local currency allows you to buy in another state.
“The Ministry of Economic Development helps exporters to reorient themselves to dynamically developing regions and markets, takes measures to strengthen technological sovereignty,” the ministry commented.
Digital finance active
— Most likely, in the 2030s, the world will reach a new equilibrium, which at the same time will answer questions about the settlement procedure in digital financial assets. (CFA). This will fix the alignment of forces and the new economic geography,” said Dmitry Belousov.
The study also predicts a boom in DFA and metaverse money in 2025-2027.
The press service of the Ministry of Finance, in response to a request from bitcoinlinux, referred to the words of the director of the financial policy department, Ivan Chebeskov, who in June said that the volume of CFA in Russia could grow to 5-10% of the entire stock market in five years, if barriers in industries will be removed. In his opinion, the development of the sphere is impossible without the use of citizens’ money, which are in crypto assets. According to Chebeskov, we are talking about 10-15 trillion rubles.
According to Dmitry Belousov, the main issue in establishing the order of CFA turnover is the impact on settlements in old assets and the subsequent redistribution of operations between banks and countries.
As Aleksey Guznov, Deputy Chairman of the Bank of Russia, told bitcoinlinux earlier, Russia plans to launch an experiment on cross-border settlements with digital financial assets.. According to him, the government supports the proposal. According to experts, such a system will help in conducting transactions against the backdrop of sanctions and will allow you to maintain anonymity, and the risks of external interference will decrease.
The burden of change
Predicting that Russia will become one of the world’s leading economies, analysts may be wishful thinking to some extent.Valery Emelyanov, an expert on the stock market at BCS World of Investments, believes.
– So far, everything is going to the fact that the Russian Federation will lose economic influence over some of the former republics of the USSR and will further reduce the size of GDP. Even official growth forecasts give stagnation at best,” he noted.
In his opinion, two technological standards are now being formed (American and Chinese), which in the future may divide the planet into two incompatible camps. All advanced innovations will reach Russia in the Chinese version adapted to the Russian marketthe expert believes.
In order for the scenario with reglobalization to take place, it is necessary to find a replacement for the dollar, but so far there is no alternative to it, said Olga Panina, head of the Department of State and Municipal Administration of the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation. According to conservative estimates, the US currency will retain its advantage in the next 10 years, she said.
However, if you look at the use of the dollar in the reserves of the central banks of the world, you can see that 20 years ago this figure exceeded 70%, and now it has fallen below 60%, said earlier in an interview with bitcoinlinux, ACRA CEO and ex-deputy chairman of the Central Bank Mikhail Sukhov. Anatoly Aksakov, the head of the State Duma committee on the financial market, also drew attention to the fact that the turnover in dollars “in a short period of time” decreased from 70 to 60%.
– Naturally, this process will continue <…>. Therefore, of course, not in one or two years, but in 10 years, America as a great financial power can come to naught,” the deputy believes.
In the next decade, Russia will produce 2-3% of global GDP, will occupy a more significant share in world industry, will continue to actively trade with the countries of Central Asia, China and, in some form, with EuropeDmitry Kulikov, director of ACRA’s group of sovereign and regional ratings, predicts.
