The dynamic of ETH is not isolated: the macro context sees Bitcoin stable above $100,000, while the Dollar Index (DXY) shows weakness and global liquidity returns to risk-on markets. In this scenario, Ethereum could be in the early stages of a bull cycle similar to the one that in 2021 led to the all-time high of $4,800.
Technical analysis on the daily (1D) chart of Ethereum (ETH): macro bull trend
- Underlying trend: ETH is in a clear long-term bull trend. The break of $3,200 with increasing volumes confirmed the start of a price expansion phase.
- Moving averages: EMA 50 and EMA 100 are distant below the price, a signal of strength but also of possible overextension. A retracement towards the $3,600–$3,700 range would be physiological and healthy to consolidate the movement.
- Bollinger Bands: Ethereum is above the upper band, an indicator of strong momentum but also of technical overbought.
- RSI (14): RSI at 72, levels reached only during phases of historical breakouts. This data suggests a possible short-term correction before a new impulse.
- MACD: still positive, but the histogram is starting to slow down. The first sign of a possible breather in the trend.
4H timeframe chart analysis: short-term consolidation phase
- Current range: ETH is consolidating between $3,800 and $3,950 after a vertical rise from $2,900.
- EMA 50 (4H): located at $3,714, acts as a fundamental dynamic support.
- RSI (4H): returned from overbought and now around 62, a signal of healthy consolidation.
- MACD (4H): slight bearish crossover, consistent with a possible pullback towards the 3,700$ area.
Macro context: perché Ethereum sta salendo ora
- Bitcoin as a guide: The trend of ETH is historically linked to BTC. With Bitcoin stable above $100,000, Ethereum benefits from the capital inflow into altcoins.
- Dollar Index and liquidity: The weakness of the dollar and the increase in liquidity in global markets favor risky assets such as crypto.
- ETF and institutional adoption: The approval of spot Ethereum ETFs in the USA has increased demand, reducing selling pressure on exchanges.
Historical Comparison: ETH 2021 vs ETH 2025
In 2021 Ethereum went from $3,200 to $4,800 in less than two months after a similar breakout. Today the chart structure resembles that phase:
- Breakout above key resistance (3,200$).
- Increasing volumes and RSI in overbought.
- Favorable macro with Bitcoin in uptrend and weak dollar.
If the pattern were to repeat, ETH could aim first for $4,400 and then for the retest of the ATH.
On-chain metrics: accumulation signals
- Exchange Netflow: In the last 30 days, there has been a net outflow of ETH from exchanges, a sign that investors are moving tokens to cold wallets for accumulation.
- Staking: Over 25% of the supply is now locked in staking on Ethereum 2.0, reducing the circulating supply.
- Whale activity: Wallets with more than 10,000 ETH have increased their positions during the breakout above $3,200.
Key levels to monitor
- Main supports: $3,600 – $3,700, $3,200 – $3,300.
- Main resistances: $3,900 – $4,000, $4,400, $4,800.
- Ideal accumulation zone: $3,500 – $3,700.
Three scenarios for the price of Ethereum (ETH)
Bullish scenario
If ETH consolidates above $3,600 and decisively breaks $4,000, the next targets are $4,400 and $4,800. A weekly close above the ATH would open space towards the $5,500–$6,000 range by the end of the year.
Neutral scenario
ETH could move in a sideways range between $3,600 and $4,000 for a few weeks, accumulating liquidity before a decisive move.
bearish Scenario
A break below $3,500 would reopen the path towards $3,200, temporarily invalidating the bullish structure. Only a close below $3,200 would bring ETH back into a medium-term bear context.
Ethereum Outlook 2025: beyond $4,000
The combination of technical signals, macro context, and on-chain metrics paints a favorable picture for ETH. The key will be the price behavior around $4,000: a clean break could pave the way for a new bull cycle that would take Ethereum beyond its historical highs.
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FAQ
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What is the key support of Ethereum?
The main support is located in the $3,600–$3,700 zone, with a critical level at $3,200.
Can Ethereum surpass $4,000?
Yes, a daily close above $4,000 would pave the way for targets of $4,400 and $4,800.
What happens if ETH drops below $3,500?
A return below $3,500 would increase the risk of a pullback to $3,200, invalidating the short-term trend.
Can Ethereum reach $6,000 in 2025?
If the bull cycle continues and breaks the ATH, the $5,500–$6,000 range is a realistic target for 2025.
Conclusion
Ethereum is at a technical and macro crossroads. A stable surpassing of $4,000 could mark the beginning of an explosive phase for the entire altcoin ecosystem. With outflows from exchanges and the increase in staking, the selling pressure is reduced and the probabilities of a new all-time high increase.
