As Bitcoin broke under the $97,000 support, Solana lost its critical psychological mark at $200. Amid the growing uncertainty in the crypto market, the pullback in Solana warns of a deeper correction.
However, the underlying technicals hint at a potential comeback if the broader market stabilizes. Should you consider purchasing Solana at discounted prices in hopes of a breakout rally?
Solana Reveals A Falling Channel Pattern in Play
In the 4-hour price trend, SOL price action reveals a falling channel pattern. Within this bearish structure, Solana has dipped from its swing high of $295 to the current market price of $193.53. This marks a 35% price drop over the past three weeks.
Furthermore, the recent bearish candle breached the 23.60% Fibonacci level, breaking the bullish dominance at the $200 psychological level.
Despite the bearish trend, the 4-hour RSI line reveals a bullish divergence. This significant bullish divergence hints at a potential positive rally within the channel pattern.
Along with RSI, the MACD indicator shows the signal line and the MACD line on the verge of a positive crossover. Thus, the technical indicators maintain an optimistic outlook on the upcoming Solana price trend.
Solana ETF Speculation: 84% Approval Chance in 2025
Adding to the underlying optimism for Solana, PolyMarket users anticipate a Solana ETF approval in 2025. Recent data shows PolyMarket users expect an 84% chance of Solana ETF approval this year.
A potential approval would likely drive liquidity into the market, boosting Solana’s market price. Hence, any positive development regarding a Solana ETF could create bullish ripples in the SOL price trend.
PumpFun’s Supply Surge: A Bearish Risk for SOL?
Despite growing bullish signals, constant supply surges from PumpFun fuel bearish pressure within the channel pattern.
According to a recent X post from OnchainLens, PumpFun has deposited 114,285 SOL tokens to Kraken, worth nearly $27 million. Since the beginning of 2025, PumpFun has transferred a total of 1,021,162 SOL tokens worth $208.32 million.
In total, PumpFun’s complete holdings amount to 2.72 million SOL tokens, valued at approximately $525.81 million.
If PumpFun decides to cash out its entire position, it could result in a massive supply dump, negatively impacting Solana’s price momentum.
Solana Price Targets
As Solana looks to reclaim the 23.6% Fibonacci level at $196.48, the bullish signals from technical indicators suggest a potential recovery above $200. With this momentum, SOL will likely challenge the overhead trendline near the 38.2% Fibonacci level at $211.
If the broader market recovers, a breakout rally in Solana could target the 78.6% Fibonacci level above the $250 psychological mark. On the other hand, a bearish continuation could push SOL down to the crucial $175 support level.
