After an 18% surge this month, Solana is taking a breather, maintaining a sideways trend above $165. While this short-term consolidation raises the risk of a double top reversal, the prevailing uptrend targets a breakout above $180.
Solana Price Analysis
On the daily chart, Solana’s sideways movement suggests a potential double top formation near the 61.80% Fibonacci retracement level at $184.52. Facing resistance from the $180 supply zone, Solana continues its sideways shift.
The 50% Fibonacci level at $165 acts as the lower boundary, while a close positioning of the 200-day EMA at $163 provides additional support. Moreover, a positive crossover between the 50-day and 100-day EMAs signals a possible trend reversal.
However, the MACD and signal lines have yet to achieve a bullish crossover, despite moving closely together. As the consolidation continues, the risk of a bearish reversal from a falling wedge breakout increases.
According to Fibonacci levels, a potential upside breakout could reach $215, marked by the 78.60% retracement, with an extended price target near $261.
On the downside, failure to hold bullish support above $165 could test the 50-day EMA at $158, followed by the 38.20% Fibonacci level at $148. Consequently, a breakdown may threaten the $150 psychological level.
Analyst Targets $200 With Bullish Pennant
As Solana consolidates, crypto analyst Lark Davis identifies a bullish pennant forming on the daily chart. Following the bull run in early May, the symmetrical triangle pattern suggests a potential breakout rally to $200 if bulls maintain control.
The analyst noted critical support levels, including the 20-day EMA at $169 and the 200-day EMA at $163.
Derivatives Data Signals Bearish Warning
Despite the optimistic price outlook, derivatives data show a surge in bearish activity. Open interest has declined by 1.09% to $7.25 billion, indicating a slowdown in trader activity.
Furthermore, the recent flip in the OI-weighted funding rate to -0.0035% reflects bearish sentiment. Overall, 24-hour-long liquidations of $4.92 million significantly outnumber short liquidations of $1.36 million. This larger shakeout of bullish players suggests a bearish bias in the derivatives market.
