The Bitcoin exchange rate has dropped to a minimum since April 25. The price of the asset first reached a local maximum of $29.7 thousand in these two weeks, but by May 10 it had dropped to $27.4 thousand. According to CoinGecko, at 15:15 Moscow time, BTC is trading near the $27.6 thousand mark.
The experts told RBC-Cryptowhat dynamics can be expected from the price of bitcoin in the near future, is a collapse of the rate possible, and what will affect the value of the asset.
US inflation
In the near future, the bitcoin rate will be very volatile, says Vladimir Chirpichinikov, head of RBK Trading LTD. According to him, the price of BTC has been in the flat for almost two months now – during this time, the 30-day volatility of the asset fell by 43.44%. After such a “calm”, the price literally explodes in one direction, the expert explained.
At 15:30 Moscow time on May 10, data on inflation in the United States will be released, which will become a key economic factor in the near future, Chirpichinikov said. He clarified that after this report, it will become clear whether buyers will be able to hold and push the price up or sellers will be able to push it down.
A surge in volatility in the market after the publication of the inflation report is also expected by BitRiver financial analyst Vladislav Antonov. He noted that on the expectations of this report, stock indices fell, while the dollar index, on the contrary, grew.
Decrease in inflation will give buyers the strength to return to the $30,000 level, while rising consumer prices in the US will put bitcoin under pressure, Antonov says. In this case, the risks of the price leaving under the level of $26.5 thousand will increase, the expert believes.
According to Chirpichinikov, if the important zone of $26.5–27 thousand is broken through, a correction is possible, in which the price may leave to test support at $25 thousand.
Other factors affecting the bitcoin price
In addition to data on the dynamics of consumer prices in the US, information about inflation in the Eurozone, increasing risks of a recession in the US, the rhetoric of the Fed before the next meeting, as well as the decision on the interest rate, can affect the price of bitcoin, says Chirpichinikov. Markets expect a pause in monetary tightening and easing in September, he said.
“This week there were problems with the withdrawal of bitcoin from Binance, this also negatively affected the price of the asset. If the situation repeats itself on other exchanges, then there is a possibility of pressure from sellers on quotes,” the expert added.
He also recalled that historically, about eight months before the halving (halving the reward of miners, expected at the beginning of 2024), the price of the BTC leaves the accumulation zone. For this reason, many market participants expect the start of a full-fledged bullish trend at the end of summer, Chirpichinikov specified.
The situation with the debt ceiling also affects investor sentiment, Antonov says. Republican senators have refused to approve raising the debt ceiling without spending cut reforms; The White House warned that exceeding the national debt limit could lead to serious economic consequences.
Bitcoin Price Movement Scenarios
According to Chirpichinikov, a negative scenario for bitcoin is a breakout of the key zone located in the range of $26.5-27 thousand. If it falls below the indicated marks, the rate can only stop at about $25 thousand – this is an important psychological level, as well as the next level of support, the expert says.
He called a rebound from $26.5-27 thousand to the zone of $29-29.5 thousand as a positive scenario. If buyers manage to pass these levels, then the price may approach $33 thousand, inflation data in the US will soon add clarity, Chirpichinnikov believes.
According to Antonov, buyers must fight for the $31,000 level: it must be passed in order for the price pattern on the daily timeframe to become bullish, otherwise the scales will begin to tilt towards sellers.
The analyst also noted that according to the cyclical analysis, the scenario for the continuation of the lateral movement is confirmed so far, the beginning of a new rally in it falls on June 1.
Stay in touch! Subscribe to bitcoinlinux.com at Telegram.
