For Bitcoin (BTC), the $30k level is pretty significant. It is quite possible that the growth of the rate on April 10 is the culmination of the trend of the first quarter, and then a rollback will follow, says Semyon Nazaruk, an expert at the Garantex Academy. He told bitcoinlinux about this on April 11.
As the expert noted, as of April 11, the market is in the stage of uncertainty. He explained that the US inflation report due on April 12 is of great importance. According to him, this will most likely determine the direction of movement of the broad market indices and the crypto market.
“For almost a month, bitcoin was flat, from which the price went up yesterday with the liquidation of short positions of traders by approximately $75 million. For the first cryptocurrency, the level of $30,000 is quite important. This is the breakeven point for many traders. It is quite possible that yesterday’s growth is the culmination of the Q1 trend, and we will see a rollback, ”Nazaruk suggested.
In addition, the expert emphasized that there is a high probability of a fall in the value of bitcoin if inflation data is released in the United States of America above the forecast.
Nazaruk noted that BTC has doubled in price since the lows of 2022 due to the historically low stocks of the asset on crypto exchanges and on the news that the Federal Reserve System (Fed) has increased the balance sheet by $300 billion to save the banking sector. As he explained, many perceived this action as a continuation of quantitative easing. However, according to the expert, in fact it is not, and the Fed’s balance sheet will probably decrease in the near future.
“Inflation is now everyone’s concern, since the Fed’s policy will depend on its value and economic conditions will be shaped. The recent unexpected announcement by OPEC+ to reduce oil production does not add optimism to inflation fighters, and the market is still waiting for a recession that will not come in any way, or is in a mild form,” Nazaruk said.
According to him, the market lays almost a 70% chance of a 25 basis point Fed rate hike at the next meeting in May and highly appreciates the chances of its fixing at 500 basis points at the June meeting.
“We can note the high open interest in options on the VIX volatility index with an expiration date in June and a strike of 30 points on the index, which indicates market participants’ fears about the state of affairs by the summer. Now the index is at 18.73,” the expert added.
He also noted the mixed economic outlook for the United States.
“In general, macro indicators indicate ambiguous economic prospects for the United States, the main thing is that investors see a trend towards lower inflation and a smooth slowdown in the economy, which gives hope for the resumption of soft monetary policy and positive for the digital asset market,” the expert said.
In addition, Nazaruk recalled the halving (halving the reward for miners for the mined block. – Ed.) Bitcoin in 2024, which accelerates pricing.
“The accumulation of the asset by large market participants has already been taking place since the end of 2022,” he specified.
The Bitcoin exchange rate exceeded $30.2 thousand for the first time since June 2022. During the day, from April 10 to April 11, the coin rose in price by almost 2 thousand, or 7%.
According to the data site CoinDesk, at 19:45 Moscow time on April 11, Bitcoin reached $30,207.
