Bitcoin strengthened even more over the past week, and the Belarusian ruble won back the loss of value against the dollar by the weekend. In general, the global foreign exchange market
lived first, in anticipation of a key rate hike in the US, and then
adjusted under new conditions. Office Life asked currency and crypto experts what to expect in the last week of March.
Photo: OL
What about exchange rates?
Executive Director of the rating agency BIK Ratings Andrey Usachev proposes to turn to official statistics: recently Belstat
published the first macroeconomic data for January-February.
We see that the volume of GDP in current prices amounted to 30.3 billion rubles, or 96.4% compared to the same period last year. The GDP deflator index in the first two months of 2023 turned out to be 109.7% compared to January-February 2022. The volume of industrial production for this period was fixed at the level of 98.2%, and for retail trade turnover – 96.5%. At the same time, the cargo turnover of transport fell by 33.6% compared to January-February 2022. In addition, by
data of the National Bank, international reserve assets decreased by $373.3 million in February. As for the balance of foreign trade, Belstat offers data only for January: a negative balance was recorded – $233.8 million, although in January 2022 it was positive – $247.4 million Exports decreased by 7.6%, while imports increased by 7.5%. All this affects the increase in demand for foreign currency.
Andrey Usachev explains that it is difficult to find economic prerequisites for strengthening the Belarusian ruble now. But there are no factors that would contribute to its significant and sharp weakening either. In the coming week, the exchange rate of the national currency is likely to be around the mark of 2.85 rubles per dollar with slight fluctuations in one direction or another.
What about the crypto market?
Analyst at futureby.info Evgeny Glinsky emphasizes that in the first quarter of this year, bitcoin has already shown an increase of more than 75%. The other day, its value exceeded $28.8 thousand, although most market participants still expected a fall, and below $13 thousand, if we analyze the open interest in the futures and options market in recent months.
Now bitcoin is in accumulation, and buyers are not able to turn the tide. Against the backdrop of problems in the global banking system, many began to consider the cryptocurrency market as a salvation, although this is not the case. Bitcoin, like other marketable assets, is used as collateral in the same way that banks use bonds. And in moments of lack of liquidity, a sale begins, including bitcoin.
The expert explains that now there are a large number of sell orders in the range of $28.7-29 thousand, which will restrain bitcoin from further growth in the near future. You also need to take into account the presence of gaps, that is, price gaps, on the chart of the CME trading exchange, both above current levels and below. If stress in the banking sector continues, it will affect the global economy as a whole, which could lead to a sell-off of most market assets.
