BTC holds strong bullish above TBO Cloud as altcoins surge. ETH struggles at key resistance while stablecoin dominance flashes a pivot signal. Not financial advice.
Bitcoin’s RSI clocked in at 78.08 on Wednesday’s daily candle. That number matters. It exceeds the April 17 local high of 77.3 and the March 16 high before that.
Volume has consistently outperformed its moving average. On-balance volume has been bullish since mid-April. BTC is above the daily TBO Cloud, which puts it in strong bullish mode per MooninPapa on X.
ETH Still Can’t Clear the Wall Most Traders Ignore
Ethereum wicked above long-term overhead resistance on Tuesday. It technically closed above it on Wednesday. Then it started struggling again at 2,376.66.
For an asset that historically led alt rallies, that is a strange place to be stuck. MooninPapa, posting on X and in his YouTube market update, said the weakness on the ETH chart should be treated as a warning flag while Bitcoin looks this strong. He raised the question of whether Ethereum is being dethroned as the altcoin leader.
On-balance volume for ETH is still technically bullish. The white moving average is still rising. But RSI closed lower on Wednesday after only piercing resistance the day before.
The crypto rotation already showing up in volume data makes this sharper. ETH’s share on major trading platforms dropped from 27% on April 11 down to 17%. Altcoins absorbed that liquidity.
The Stablecoin Signal Nobody Is Talking About
Stablecoin dominance closed at 23.76 on Wednesday. The last time it printed that low was March 16 at 23.33. A pullback followed that reading.
Per MooninPapa on X, a bullish RSI reset for stablecoins is now likely. TBO support could shift from 8.05% up to 10.017%. Back in January, a similar setup launched stablecoin dominance from 8% all the way to 12%.
Bitcoin dominance sits at 61.21%, still in strong bullish territory. But hidden bearish divergence is forming on RSI. MooninPapa noted on X that if BTC dominance drops and stablecoin dominance also drops, the “others” dominance index absorbs the move. That index already climbed 10% across two days. RSI hit 83.72.
That is not a small number.
ZEC, ICP, KAS and the Coins Actually Moving
Total crypto market cap hit $2.43 trillion Wednesday. RSI on TOTALES landed at 77.97. TOTALE50 wicked to TBO resistance at $44.66 billion with RSI at 80.68, the highest reading since January.
MooninPapa, in the YouTube update, named specific movers from the last 48 hours: ZEC, ICP, ALGO, MORPHO, KAS, FIL, DASH, VVV, CRV and FARTCOIN. Zcash hit a resistance level of $607.35 almost to the decimal. Its RSI closed at 92.87. ICP pumped 20%, then fell 7% the following session.
Chasing late-stage breakout candles remains risky, per his view. Especially on 10%-plus moves. Preferred setups are pullbacks to the fast line on charts that have already bounced from that level multiple times.
Optimism confirmed a TBO open long on a 10.82% Wednesday move. ETH, Kronos, Mantle and DOT all printed TBO closed short signals. For short holders, that typically suggests considering a retrace to the fast line before repositioning.
TradFi Backdrop: DXY, Yen, Oil, Gold
DXY rejected from overhead resistance Wednesday. It put in a slightly lower low at 97.625 versus 97.632 previously. MooninPapa is still expecting DXY to close its gap lower, though the timeline is harder to call.
USD/JPY is now below the TBO Cloud for the first time since June 2025. Japan’s Ministry of Finance has signaled intervention intent. On the weekly chart, on-balance volume has crossed below its moving average. A downtrend is beginning there. MooninPapa’s target range on USD/JPY is down toward 140.
Reports of US-Iran peace talks pushed oil back into bearish consolidation. It is now inside the cloud again. The slow line still points up, but a gap sits at $68.137, roughly 29% below current levels. Gold popped 3% on Wednesday, moving toward the top of its TBO Cloud near $4,790. Silver jumped 6% but remains technically bearish on on-balance volume, with trading volume falling.
Uranium printed a TBO closed long on Tuesday. It immediately closed with a 7% pump on Wednesday. Pure meme-coin behavior, per MooninPapa’s words on X.
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