The last days of March on the currency markets passed without serious turmoil. Like
predicted analysts, for the growth of bitcoin and the weakening of the ruble, there were many restraining factors. What will happen next? Experts draw attention to a series of events (both past and future), the consequences of which we can see already in the first week of April.
Photo: OL
What about exchange rates?
Financial analyst Alexander Shkut says that this week, for many countries, the producer price index is released – a leading indicator by which one can judge consumer inflation in the future.
If the indicator is higher than expected, this is a signal that inflation is not slowing down and we should expect tightening of monetary policy from world central banks. As a result, risky assets will begin to decline. For example, the dollar is a risk-free currency, which means it can appreciate against other currencies. In the opposite situation, if the index shows a decrease in inflation, we can see an increase in risky assets and a decrease in the dollar.
Another important statistic is on the US labor market. Here it is worth paying attention to the number of new applications for unemployment benefits. And although these are statistics for the US market, it will affect the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve System (FRS), which will affect many countries, since the dollar is actively used in export-import payments around the world. A better-than-expected reading will negatively impact markets as the Fed is now holding back the economy: the worse the US labor market, the better it is for the dollar against other currencies.
The week will end with updated data on Russia’s GDP, which may also affect the Belarusian ruble, but this impact will be rather restrained, the analyst emphasizes. In general, no significant fluctuations are expected for our currency in the coming days.
What about the crypto market?
Manager for the development of educational programs and business Metis.io Olga Poleshchuk explains: after the situation with
bankruptcy Silicon Valley Bank, where Circle, the USDC stablecoin issuer, held part of the reserves, some investors transferred their savings to bitcoin, ether and Tether. Although the latter also uses the services of banks to hold reserves, its issuance rose to $79.7 billion, while that of USDC fell to $32.9 billion.
The trading volumes of bitcoin and ether also increased, which allowed them to grow: by March 30, bitcoin even tested marks above $29,000, but later the quotes fell. These two major cryptocurrencies continue to demonstrate better dynamics compared to traditional financial instruments, but it is still too early to talk about its further preservation and growth in the cryptocurrency market capitalization.
Olga recalls that the cryptocurrency market depends not only on events in the global economy and the US stock market, but also on news in the industry. Investors react painfully to any rumors about tightening regulation and claims against operators. From a recent one: the American regulator accused
Binance in trading in unregistered derivatives, which, naturally, caused another panic: the volume of withdrawal of assets from the exchange to cold wallets increased. True, the market quickly stabilized and continued to consolidate in the green zone.
Trading volumes are gradually increasing, especially on decentralized services. In March, it was about $960 billion, although in February this figure was $878.4 billion. On decentralized exchanges, trading volume exceeded $108 billion in March compared to $68.8 billion in February. But given the tightening of cryptocurrency regulation, the possible prosecution of representatives industry, the crisis in the banking sector and questions about the quality of reserves of stablecoin issuers
“Interesting” awaits us ahead. Volatility has not gone away from the market, so any investment in the near future should be approached with caution.
