While traders brace for potential moves triggered by the labor report, one indicator is raising eyebrows: the premium on CME’s Bitcoin futures contracts has dropped to just 4.3% annualized — the lowest level since October 2023. That decline suggests a cooling of institutional enthusiasm, according to Markus Thielen of 10x Research.
“The fact that this premium has fallen from 10% earlier this year to current levels, even while BTC holds above $100,000, shows institutions are becoming more cautious,” Thielen told CoinDesk. He pointed to weakening expectations of short-term gains and growing unease about price direction as key factors.
The futures premium reflects how much more traders are willing to pay for Bitcoin futures over its spot price. A shrinking gap often signals reduced confidence in aggressive upward moves — and a more uncertain outlook for the weeks ahead.
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