On the crypto market, the sentiment remains cautious due to the uncertainty of the SEC regarding XRP ETFs – the decision is postponed and is the main short-term catalyst, as reported by FXEmpire.
class=”wp-block-heading”>Technical analysis and historical trend of XRP
- Price XRP/USDT: $2.27
- Market cap: approximately 134.1 billion $
- 24h Volume: 2.33 billion $
- ATH (all-time high): $3.84 (January 2018; recent top January 2025 at $3.40)
- RSI Daily: 56 (neutral-slightly bullish zone)
- MACD Daily: positive crossover, but modest, with a slightly hinted up trend
- ADX (14D): 22 (trend strengthening but not yet explosive)
- ATR (14D): 0.16 (contained volatility, typical of an accumulation phase)
- Funding Rate: neutral/slightly positive on the main exchanges (Binance, Bybit), signal of equilibrium between long and short
Trend and pattern of XRP price
From April 2025, XRP has moved in a box range between $1.75 and $2.40, with a brief bull spike in June that has not yet confirmed beyond the $2.40-2.50 threshold, crucial for the restart. The key movement remains the holding of the lows at $2.10 and the construction of rising lows ($1.75 in May, $2.10 in June, $2.20 now). The most recent relative high was marked at $2.48 (June 24).
On the weekly chart, the price remains above the 50-week moving average ($1.86), an indicator of a still positive setup. The volume cluster and Point of Control (POC) are concentrated between $2.00 and $2.15: from here, robust rebounds have always been recorded.
On the daily, XRP continues to form a sequence of inside candles and consolidations, typical of accumulation by market makers – the compression of volatility often precedes directional breakouts.
Relevant patterns:
- Ascending triangle forming, base at $2.10, dynamic resistance at $2.40.
- Modestly visible positive divergence on RSI and MACD, suggesting the possibility of a bull breakout if confirmed by volumes.
Recent breakouts: No significant breakout confirmed above $2.48; the breakdown below $2.05 in May was quickly absorbed.
Key supports:
- Daily: $2.10, $2.00, $1.86 (MA50w)
- Weekly: $1.85 (historical), $1.50 (cyclical bull support)
Key resistances:
- Daily: $2.40 – $2.50 (massive supply zone)
- Weekly: $2.75, $3.10 and the January high at $3.40
Short and Medium Term Scenario
In the short term (next 2-4 weeks), it is essential to monitor the test of $2.40: a sustained daily close above this level, accompanied by increasing volumes (over $3.5 billion/24h), would confirm the positive conclusion of the ascending triangle pattern.
In case of refusal, the levels to watch for a possible return to the long renewal zone are $2.10 and $2.00 – their break would lead to testing the major support zone at $1.85 and, in extension, $1.50.
Technical patterns: the ascending triangle is approaching a breakout, with the peak expected by the end of July. RSI and MACD impress with positive divergence, while volumes remain compressed: pressure is building for a directional move.
XRP Price Forecast
Bull scenario
Break above $2.50 accompanied by volume expansion can project XRP towards the targets of $2.75, $3.10, and $3.40 (old annual high). In case of hype from ETF approval or favorable outcome in the SEC dispute, rapid spikes towards the $4.0 area cannot be ruled out.
Bear scenario
A confirmed break below $2.00 would activate the key levels at $1.85 and $1.50. Only the structural loss of $1.50 would reintroduce a bear cycle, but as of today, it seems unlikely given the current market appetite.
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Personal forecast
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Based on current data, a slightly more probable scenario: bullish breakout at $2.50, with an initial target of $2.75 by the end of July, supported by increasing volumes. The pressure from news (ETF/SEC) remains the main risk-opportunity.
Conclusion and final suggestions
The technical setup of XRP today is resilient: the trend remains moderately bullish, with a compression pattern that can trigger volatility in the coming weeks. The strength of the supports between $2.00 and $2.20 suggests that any corrections are targeted buying opportunities, especially from a swing or position accumulation perspective.
On the fundamental front, the SEC theme and the possibility of an XRP ETF are the real short-term catalyst: any news in this regard can quickly change the sentiment. Partnerships and growth of on-chain volume on XRPL strengthen the long-term view.
Operational advice: focus on breakout/reaccumulation above $2.50, well-calibrated stop loss below $2.00; progressive positioning on any pullback in the $2.10-2.00 area.
This is not financial advice. Always analyze the risk, stay updated on market news, and use stop loss!
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Price sources: CoinGecko, price recorded on 2025-07-07T09:46:03.737+02:00
News and data: FXEmpire, CoinCentral, TheTradable, U.Today, Finance Magnates
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